Strategic Romance


Aasma is a mathematician and devised an algorithm to find a husband. The strategy is:

  • Start interviewing a maximum of $1000$ prospective husbands. Assign a ranking $r$ to each person that is a positive integer. No two prospects will have the same rank $r$.
  • Reject the first $k$ men and let $H$ be the highest rank of these $k$ men.
  • After rejecting the first $k$ men, select the next prospect with a rank greater than $H$ and then stop the search immediately. If no candidate is selected after $999$ interviews, the $1000$th person is selected.

Aasma wants to find the value of $k$ for which she has the highest probability of choosing the highest ranking prospect among all $1000$ candidates without having to interview all $1000$ prospects.


(a)  What is the probability that the highest ranking prospect among all $1000$ prospects is the $(m+1)$th prospect?

(b) Assume the highest ranking prospect is the $(m+1)$th person to be interviewed. What is the probability that the highest rank candidate among the first $m$ candidates is one of the first $k$ candidates who were rejected?

(c) What is the probability that the prospect with the highest rank is the $(m+1)$th person and that Aasma will choose the $(m+1)$th boy using this algorithm?

(d) The total probability that Aasma will choose the highest ranking prospect among the $1000$ prospects is the sum of the probability for each possible value of $m+1$ with $m+1$ ranging between $k+1$ and $1000$. Find the sum. To simplify your answer use the formula 

$\ln N \approx \frac{1}{N-1} + \frac{1}{N-2} + \cdots + \frac{1}{2} + \frac{1}{1}$

(e)  Find that value of $k$ that maximizes the probability of choosing the highest ranking prospect without interviewing all $1000$ candidates. You may need to know that the maximum of the function $x \ln \frac{A}{x-1}$ is approximately $(A+1)/e$, where $A$ is a constant and $e$ is Euler’s number, $e = 2.718\ldots$.


Source: BdMO 2016 National Secondary P7


Proof Based Problems  


  0 Upvote                    0 Downvote


Solution

Disclaimer: The solutions we've shared are just one exciting approach, and there are surely many other wonderful methods out there. We’d love to hear your alternative solutions in the community thread below, so let's keep the creativity flowing!

a.

As the prospects are numbered randomly, every prospect has the same probability of $\boxed{\frac{1}{1000}}$ for having the highest rank.

b.

The $i$th prospect ($1\leq i\leq m$) has a probability of $\frac 1m$ for having the highest rank among the first $m$ prospects. So, the probability that the highest ranking prospect (among the first $m$) is one of the first $k$ prospects is $\boxed{\frac km}$. 

c.

The probability that the $(m+1)$th prospect is the highest ranking is $\frac{1}{1000}$. And the probability that this prospect will be picked is $\frac km$, since he will be picked only if the highest ranking prospect among the first $m$ prospects was one of the first $k$ who were rejected. The probability that both these events occur is therefore $\boxed{\frac{k}{1000m}}$.

d.

Note that the sum is \begin{align*} \sum_{m=k}^{999} \frac{k}{1000m} & =\frac{k}{1000}\sum_{m=k}^{999}\frac 1m \\ & = \frac{k}{1000}\left(\sum_{m=1}^{999} \frac 1m-\sum_{m=1}^{k-1} \frac 1m \right) \\ & \approx \frac{k}{1000} (\ln 1000-\ln k) \\ & = \boxed{\frac{k}{1000}\ln \left (\frac{1000}k\right)} .\end{align*}

e.

We need to find the value of $k$ for which $\frac{k}{1000}\ln \left (\frac{1000}k\right)$ is maximized. Let $f(x)=\frac{\ln x}x$. We can find that $f'(x)=\frac{1-\ln x}{x^2}$ by using the quotient rule from calculus. We know from calculus that a "good" function has its maximum when its derivative is $0$ (or in the endpoints, but we don't need that). Clearly $$f'(x)=0 \iff 1-\ln x=0 \iff x=e.$$ So the maximum is attained when $x=e$. Now notice that the function we care about is $f(1000/k)$. This is maximized when $1000/k=e$ or $k=1000/e\approx \boxed{368}$.

This is a proof based problem added for learning purposes and does not accept submissions.

You can view the solution by clicking on the solution tab.